A look at the future of telematics and autonomy

We are in the heart of a radical change to an industry many of us have devoted much of our lives to. My own first experiences involved tuning carburetors and adjusting ignition point gap, and now I do all I can to keep up with new computer network diagnostic methods using diagnostic platforms based in something you young guns refer to as the “cloud.” I am beginning to relate to the older techs I knew when I first started who ran for the hills when electronic ignitions and the first engine “controllers” were being introduced.

But don’t worry – I’m not running anywhere. I look forward to the challenges our future is going to bring to us, and the inevitable evolution of the automobile and the redefinition of “personal transportation.” Let’s peer into the crystal ball together and see what the future may hold for all of us.

A truly mobile network

The first device that could be truly called a “smartphone” was the IBM “Simon Personal Communicator”, marketed by BellSouth to consumers in 1994. In addition to placing and receiving cellular calls, Simon could send and receive faxes and emails and included an address book, calendar, appointment scheduler, calculator, world time clock and notepad, utilizing its touch screen display. At about the same time, GM (and partner firms Electronic Data Systems and Hughes Electronics Corporation) were bringing a unique service to certain GM model lines – OnStar.

In early 2007, Apple Inc. introduced the iPhone, one of the first smartphones to use a multi-touch interface. The iPhone was notable for its use of a large touchscreen for direct finger input as its main means of interaction, instead of a stylus, keyboard, or keypad typical for smartphones at the time.  In October 2008, the first phone to use the Android operating system was released. Android is an open-source platform founded by Andy Rubin and now owned by Google. Although Android's adoption was relatively slow at first, it started to gain widespread popularity in 2010, and in early 2012 dominated the smartphone market share worldwide, which continues to this day.

It also marked the beginning of a new way of connecting to the world around us. By this time, most of us were used to the Internet and browsing the World Wide Web on our desktops and laptops. But now, the power of computing was in the palm of our hands. Not only were we able to access our email and world news on our mobile phones, we also began connecting with one another in new ways via a variety of social media platforms. The world was, indeed, getting to be a lot smaller, at least in terms of staying connected to those around us professionally and personally.

Today, major players in the telecom industry (Apple, Google, and Microsoft come to mind) are looking to turn your car into one big smartphone and they aren’t too far off from making that happen. Cellular services are now directly connected to the car, allowing you to listen to your favorite music on Pandora^Ò or find your way to your destination via Google Maps. You can link your phone to your infotainment system or use the onboard cellular connection to make and receive phone calls, and in some cases, exchange text messages with your contacts.

But don’t think for a minute that these companies are doing it for you. Companies like Google, Amazon, and Facebook are all considering the economic bottom line that opens to them if they can farm all that data you’re providing while in your car. Imagine, they can use these connections to learn where you are going, how often you are going there, and what route you are using. They can learn what music you are listening to and who you are communicating with. And this is just a tip of the information iceberg they are interested in collecting.

Why?

Because they can sell that information to other companies who want to sell stuff to you.

Of course, the automakers are somewhat in tune with the idea of information harvesting too. But they have a narrower focus, interested in keeping you as a loyal customer and using you as a rolling R&D department. Bob Chabot, in a recent Motor article, interviewed John Ellis of Ellis and Associates for a story called “Zero Dollar Cars:  Closer Than You Think?” that was very enlightening. Imagine purchasing a new car and having companies like the ones mentioned paying you for the right to farm your personal data, offsetting the cost of that new car. The money they would pay you for the rights would be far less than the money they know they’ll make selling that data in marketable “packets”, tailored to specific industries. So much so, that new car may actually cost you nothing by the time you’re done reviewing and accepting all the offers.

Connecting the “connected” car

One major question that is still in play is how to move all that data. Are you familiar with the term “IofT” yet? It stands for the “Internet of Things” and it refers to the connectivity of everyone and everything in one giant pool of information. The growth of mobile smartphones is just a small, but fast growing, segment of the IofT. Connected systems on the vehicle, like OnStar and similar services, is another. Providers of services you use on those phones and in your car is yet another. And we are still only scratching the surface of all the users using all the different devices and machines accessing the global network.

One answer that is being supported as the best solution is the development of 5G. Think of a cellular-based service that doesn’t rely on any particular infrastructure (relying instead on a device-to-device concept sharing the “cloud”), could allow for billions of simultaneous users, and all of them able to access that data at a rate of 10Gb/second with near zero latency? That’s the concept of 5G, and it could potentially play an important role in bringing the idea of autonomous cars to life.

To clarify, there is a difference between a “connected” car and a connected car, a nuance in terminology if you will. People are intimately connected to the global data network and each other via their smart devices today. You’ve seen it – couples talking to each other by texting, even when they’re sitting at the same table! Very few, I think, could truly cope without their phones, even those of us who grew up with the rotary dial landline.

And we don’t just want to be able to communicate, we want all of the conveniences our phones offer us. We want to keep up with our friends on Facebook, Instagram and SnapChat. We want to listen to our streaming music, or watch our streaming movies and TV shows. And we want it all the time. That is the “connected” car, the rolling mobile smartphone/tablet/laptop that brings our world with us when we travel. 5G would certainly enable to do all those things we want and then some.

The connected car, on the other hand, is the one that is connected to other cars. It is one of the pillars of the potential for autonomous cars. Right now, systems using Dedicated Short Range Communications systems (DSRC) are the reality as 5G is still an unrealized (but anxiously anticipated) dream. DSRC is a WiFi-type of device that allows for the transmission and reception of vehicle speeds, location and direction of travel in a variety of conditions with high data transfer speeds and minimal latency.

“It’s like the Twitter of automotive wireless technologies,” says Geoff Waters, a digital networking engineer at NXP, which makes DSRC modules that use the company’s RoadLINK platform.

Proponents of DSRC point out that it can accommodate all necessary vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2X) communications in modules that are already commercially available. Regulators in Europe and the U.S. have embraced DSRC, with the U.S Department of Transportation considering making the installation of DSRC modules mandatory in all new vehicles.

But there is growing support for 5G as an alternative and many are encouraging automakers and the government to delay implementation of any formal standards. Those who favor 5G point out several advantages, including the use of cars as roving “hot spots” that others could use to access the global network. With increasing demands for services requiring high data rates and lots of bandwidth, this could be one solution to the growing need.

5G or DSRC, the experts do agree on one thing. We are still at least a decade away from either making any real difference. Some OEMs are already installing DSRC modules but the data they are “chirping” into the airwaves is being heard by no one. A few opinionate that once we do start seeing large scale use of DSRC, we may find that the signals are actually interfering with one another but by that time, 5G should be on the scene and manufacturers will be in a position to make the transition. In the end, we may see V2V communications a mix and match of the two and as Waters observes, “the difference between an autonomous car that will drive you smoothly through the city versus the autonomous car that's going to spill your coffee.”

“Seeing” with LIDAR

The idea of when we may see true autonomous cars on our highways varies quite a bit. Some say it will be decades away, while others aren’t so sure, convinced they will be common within the next 10 years. One breakthrough that may make the latter happen is “lidar”, or “light detection and ranging”, a technology that uses near-infrared light to detect the shape of objects around it.

In a May 2017 New York Times article, reporter John R. Quain writes that “the technology is the centerpiece of an intense court fight in California between Uber and Waymo, the self-driving business operated by Google’s parent, Alphabet. In the case, Waymo accuses a former Google engineer, Anthony Levandowski, of stealing trade secrets about the company’s lidar designs for his own autonomous driving start-up — which he sold to Uber for nearly $700 million.” Other companies are in a rush to develop versions of the technology of their own and some state that the technology will be the factor that makes autonomous cars 100 percent safe.

LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) offers distinct advantages to the camera and radar systems being used today. Lidar is capable of imaging a three-dimensional map of its surroundings and cannot be fooled by weather, shadows or direct sunlight. The reason it’s not being used today? One, of course, is cost.

The LIDAR unit on the Google car costs $75,000. Even with advances in design, the cost still remains high, just short of $10,000 today. And that’s still too high for automakers, who’d like to see at least another zero shaved off of the end of that number. Quain includes in his report this quote from Jeffrey Owens, chief technology officer for Delphi,  “In five years, for ride-sharing cars, it could be an $8,000 option”. Delphi recently announced it was working with Intel, BMW and Mobileye on an autonomous driving platform. “In 2025, it could be $5,000.”

Another reason is compatibility. Today, LIDAR units made by different manufacturers paint slightly different pictures of the world that means installing a replacement unit made by a different company than the one who originally supplied the OEM could cause problems. Do you wear glasses? Think of wearing someone else’s prescription – that’s the same idea.

A few years ago, I wrote a story on the Anaheim autonomous test that was being conducted by the National Highway Traffic and Safety Administration, in partnership with several OEMs and notable aftermarket giants. In that article, I commented that I believed that by the time my oldest granddaughter was ready to drive, she wouldn’t have to. I’ll modify that today. She may still need to learn how to operate the car on her own, but I’m still willing to be my newest grandchild (at three years old) just may not. I look forward to being around long enough to see. How about you?