New vehicle sales slow down aging of fleet

July 30, 2014
The average age of vehicles on the road is still hovering just below 12 years, although the rate of aging of the fleet is slowing down, says a new report from IHS Automotive.

The average age of vehicles on the road is still hovering just below 12 years, although the rate of aging of the fleet is slowing down, says a new report from IHS Automotive. At the same time, the rise in new vehicle sales and improving vehicle quality are moving the traditional "sweet spot" for independent aftermarket repair shops and dealerships.

The age and type of vehicle coming in for repairs will change significantly over the next five years, and the aftermarket will need to adjust accordingly.

The average age of light vehicles on the road held steady at 11.4 years, according to data from January 2014 gathered by IHS. IHS incorporated Polk, previous publishers of the average age data, into its business in 2013.

Total light vehicles in operation (VIO) in the U.S. increased more than 3.7 million (1.5 percent) to 252.7 million, a new record. New vehicle registrations outpaced scrappage by more than 24 percent for the first time in 10 years, reflecting steadily improving vehicle sales figures.

"That's reflective of three or four years of pretty significant growth in new to five-year-old vehicles," says Mark Seng, global aftermarket practice leader at IHS Automotive. "New light vehicle registrations have had double-digit increases in previous years, and last year that growth was about 7.5 percent. Couple that with people hanging on to their vehicles longer, and all of that contributes to what we're seeing in terms of VIO and the scrappage rate."

The number of vehicles scrapped in 2013 was just 11.5 million, compared to the more than 14 million scrapped in 2012.

The scrappage rate has declined as new vehicle sales increase. Those newer vehicles are built to last longer, and owners are driving them longer than ever before. "New light vehicle sales have taken off, and all of the vehicles being added to the VIO are low-scrappage-rate vehicles," Seng says.

Fleet continues to age

The combined fleet of cars and light trucks is now older than ever, and the average age of light trucks has now increased to reach the same 11.4 years as passenger cars. According to IHS, that hasn't happened since 1995 when the data was first reported.

"Trucks are growing in population in general and benefiting from new technology and better quality," Seng says. "In the past, trucks were treated more like utility vehicles. They weren't maintained as well and were used for more rough purposes. Now, they are becoming more everyday vehicles, and that is contributing to the trucks lasting longer."

The average age of vehicles has slowed and will remain at around 11.4 to 11.5 years for the next several years. That's because the economy has improved (and boosted new vehicle sales). "From 2004 to 2009, the average age of vehicles rose 5.4 percent," Seng says. "From 2009 to 2014, average rose by 11 percent. But it's going to increase just 2.6 percent until 2019."

The rapid increase in age after 2009 was a direct result of the recession and the dramatic drop in new light vehicle sales. "As new car sales come back, we see that average age increase decelerating," Seng says. "It will plateau, then go back to the rate of increase we saw prior to the recession."

Sweet spot shifts

For the aftermarket, the rapidly aging fleet of better quality vehicles will mean that the traditional "sweet spot" is going to move. The average age will increase from 11.4 year to 11.7 years by 2019, and eventually exceed 12 years.

At the same time, the proportion of vehicles in each age group will also change. The number of vehicles zero to five years old will increase by 32 percent over the next five years, while vehicles in the six to 11 years-old category will decline by 21 percent—that's where the sweet spot used to be. With quality improving, and customers driving vehicles longer, the number of cars in the fleet that are more than 12 years old will increase by 15 percent by 2019.

That will mean suppliers, distributors and repairers will need to accommodate much older vehicles than before. "The sweet spot we've always talked about is really changing," Seng says. "The seven- to 11-year-old vehicle range is the same sweet spot that has been talked about for 15 years, and now it's shifting.

"The good news for the aftermarket is that the oldest vehicles will continue to increase their share of the market over the next five years," Seng says. "That's very important for aftermarket parts suppliers, distributors, and those that service vehicles to understand how that age profile is changing and how it will impact vehicles that enter the service bay."

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