While semi-autonomous vehicles (AVs) are already hitting the road from automakers like Tesla and GM, fully autonomous cars may be here even sooner than originally expected. General Motors plans to offer a full AV by 2019, and Nissan Motor Co. is aiming to do the same in 2022.
In the U.S., Congress also is working on legislation to increase the number of AVs on public highways while establishing safety standards.
Nissan is taking a phased approach, introducing semi-autonomous features such as single-lane driving and auto parking to more models before launching true AVs. The company also plans to test an autonomous ride-hailing system in Yokohama, Japan this spring using two Leaf electric vehicles equipped with software form DeNA Co.
At a meeting at the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, analysts with Mirae Asset Daewoo Securities stated that the AV car parts and technology market is currently $12.2 billion, but will have a compound annual growth rate of 32 percent, reaching $48.5 billion in 2021.
In the aftermarket, SEMA’s Advanced Vehicle Technology Opportunity Study estimates the potential market for retrofitting advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and connected vehicle technologies will grow from $977 million to $1.5 billion through 2021.
General Motors, meanwhile, believes the AV market could potentially be in the trillions, and claims it will launch autonomous vehicles at scale in cities by 2019.
Research firm IHS Markit agrees, predicting that AV revenues will reach $1 trillion in 2040. China has made heavy investments in the technology, and could very well lead the market in adoption. The company forecasts sales of 21 million AVs in 2035. A similar study by Accenture and the Stevens Institute of Technology estimates that there will be as many as 23 million fully autonomous cars in the U.S. by 2035.
“Future mobility will connect and combine many different modes and technologies, and autonomous vehicles will play a central role,” said Jeremy Carlson, principal analyst at IHS Automotive. “IHS expects entirely new vehicle segments to be created, in addition to traditional vehicles adding autonomous capabilities. Consumers gain new choices in personal mobility to complement mass transit, and these new choices will increasingly use battery electric and other efficient means of propulsion.”
That growth will be partly dependent on falling costs. In December, Delphi Automotive CEO Kevin Clark announced that his company is targeting a 90 percent reduction in the cost of self-driving car solutions by 2025, falling from $70,000-$150,000 to just $5,000.
Delphi changed its name to Aptiv in December and spun off its powertrain segment as Delphi Technologies. Aptiv will focus on self-driving and connected vehicles.
Dozens of new models on the way
Nissan’s efforts are part of a broader initiative it has undertaken with Renault and Mitsubishi called the Alliance 2022. The three automakers plan to share powertrain platforms and increase electric vehicle development in concert. They also plan to release 12 new pure electric vehicles by 2022, along with 40 vehicles that feature different levels of autonomy.
Nissan launched its first vehicle with autonomous features in the U.S. Its new Rogue will have an option to include ProPilot Assist, which will allow the car to automatically stay in a single lane, adapt speed to match traffic, and provide blind spot warnings. This potentially could introduce higher-level semi-autonomous features to a much wider driving population than Tesla’s AutoPilot (which is only available to a specific niche of upscale electric vehicle owners).
By 2020, the Alliance group plans to expand assisted driving technology to urban environments, followed by a full AV in 2022.
GM via its Cruise Automation subsidiary is working toward an entirely new business model built around driverless cars. GM’s plan is to offer AVs as the foundation for ride sharing services as vehicle ownership drops off among millennials and subsequent generations of potential drivers.
GM believes that eliminating the driver from the cost of operating ride-sharing services could cut those costs to $1 or less. By doing so, such services could increase their share of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in the U.S. from less than 1 percent to 20 percent or more of VMT. That could generate hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue and double-digit profits.
GM also has launched its Super Cruise semi-autonomous solution in its Cadillac CT6.
Uber has partnered with Volvo to create a fleet of self-driving vehicles for its ride-hailing service. Lyft, meanwhile, has forged an alliance with self-driving vehicle company Waymo.
In December, Ford announced it would build a fully autonomous vehicle. Ford also plans to supply the ride-sharing market, but strictly as a manufacturer. The company had previously announced it would have such a car by 2021, with availability for customers five to 10 years later.
Ford does not have immediate plans for semi-autonomous systems.
New regulations on the way
While a handful of states in the U.S. have passed self-driving vehicle legislation, rules at the federal level are still in development. The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill in September that will allow up to 80,000 autonomous vehicles on the road. The bill lets the U.S. Department of Transportation set safety standards for driverless vehicles, while reinforcing state-level enforcement of local registration and traffic laws.
However, the bill hit a few snags in the Senate (where it is known as the AV START Act) by way of Democratic Senators Ed Markey of Massachusetts and Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, who have both been vigorous proponents of improved security in connected vehicles. Both men have questioned the legislation’s approach to cybersecurity and privacy. The bill also lacks a self-driving trucking provision, which has raised concerns from other legislators.
Blumenthal successfully lobbied for amendments to the bill that would require NHTSA to establish safety rules, limit vehicle exemption caps, and limit automakers’ ability to disable vehicle safety systems.
“The comprehensive autonomous vehicle legislation approved in Committee today radically changes the existing laws and procedures for auto safety in the interest of speeding up the rollout of these vehicles,” Blumenthal said. “The common sense amendments I authored and successfully included in the approved bill will not only foster innovation, but also help manufacturers earn the traveling public’s trust with increased transparency and additional oversight by NHTSA. As Congress considers the future of autonomous vehicle use, we must make it clear to consumers that safety won’t take a back seat.”
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