While semi-autonomous vehicles (AVs) are already hitting the road from automakers like Tesla and GM, fully autonomous cars may be here even sooner than originally expected. General Motors plans to offer a full AV by 2019, and Nissan Motor Co. is aiming to do the same in 2022.
In the U.S., Congress also is working on legislation to increase the number of AVs on public highways while establishing safety standards.
Nissan is taking a phased approach, introducing semi-autonomous features such as single-lane driving and auto parking to more models before launching true AVs. The company also plans to test an autonomous ride-hailing system in Yokohama, Japan this spring using two Leaf electric vehicles equipped with software form DeNA Co.
At a meeting at the Korea Semiconductor Industry Association, analysts with Mirae Asset Daewoo Securities stated that the AV car parts and technology market is currently $12.2 billion, but will have a compound annual growth rate of 32 percent, reaching $48.5 billion in 2021.
In the aftermarket, SEMA’s Advanced Vehicle Technology Opportunity Study estimates the potential market for retrofitting advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and connected vehicle technologies will grow from $977 million to $1.5 billion through 2021.
General Motors, meanwhile, believes the AV market could potentially be in the trillions, and claims it will launch autonomous vehicles at scale in cities by 2019.
Research firm IHS Markit agrees, predicting that AV revenues will reach $1 trillion in 2040. China has made heavy investments in the technology, and could very well lead the market in adoption. The company forecasts sales of 21 million AVs in 2035. A similar study by Accenture and the Stevens Institute of Technology estimates that there will be as many as 23 million fully autonomous cars in the U.S. by 2035.