This article is co-authored by Lisa Lofton.
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This is the first part in a two-part series on autonomous vehicles (AVs) and the collision repair industry. See Part Two in an upcoming issue of ABRN to learn more about AVs, their challenges and what collision repair shops should think about to prepare for the future.
As automotive technology continues to evolve – despite naysayers – autonomous vehicles (AVs) and connected vehicles are on the horizon to become more mainstream, and the collision repair industry may already be feeling some of the impact.
Close to 60 million vehicles in the United States alone are equipped with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) such as blind-spot detection, adaptive cruise control and crash-avoidance systems, according to a March 2019 Frost & Sullivan report. Big changes towards full autonomy are expected within the next few years, but technology, regulations, infrastructure, societal acceptance, as well as other factors, all need to align.
|Automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEM) are now beginning to view themselves as mobility providers instead of just as vehicle manufacturers as autonomous vehicle (AV) technology continues to advance.|
Many original equipment manufacturers (OEMS) have said they plan to sell self-driving vehicles between 2020 and 2025. Each automaker has its own amalgamated sensor suite – a combination of the three main groups of sensor systems: Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR), radar and camera systems – supplemented by other sensors such as ultrasonic and other source inputs for its AV designs. That means there is currently no industry standard.
Several technological hurdles also still must be cleared, including the ability to test a wide range of both software and hardware solutions in various operating environments. There are also myriad regulatory and infrastructure obstacles.
The most-advanced AVs (also referred to as self-driving or driverless vehicles) are expected to be completely electric, defined as Autonomous, Connected, Electrified and Shared (ACES). Other terms used in the industry to define AVs include Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicles (SAEV) and Connected Autonomous Shared Electric Vehicles (CASE).
Other important issues beyond technical considerations also have to be addressed – such as cybersecurity concerns, who will be liable if the vehicle crashes, how it will be insured, etc. – before completely self-driving vehicles will be available for sale in the United States to the general public.
Despite this, automakers, tech giants and specialty startups have invested at least $50 billion during the last few years to develop AV technology. To that end, automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are increasingly looking at themselves as mobility providers than simply as a vehicle manufacturer, causing manufacturers and suppliers to revamp their business models.
|Requirements of an Autonomous Vehicles|
There are already early adopters of AVs, and Toyota predicts that in 2020, 42 percent of U.S. vehicles will be equipped with some type of “cooperative automated driving” technology tied to 5G or Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC) – an open-source protocol for wireless communication intended for highly secure, high-speed wireless communication between vehicles and infrastructure. Forecasts expect that number to increase 68 percent by 2030 with sales of more than $30 million.
The total number of ADAS-enabled and autonomous cars on the road is expected to increase from 9 percent of the total Vehicles in Operation (VIO) in 2017 to 82 percent in 2030. The number of light-duty vehicles – i.e. passenger cars and light trucks – in the United States in 2018 was 276.1 million and Hedges & Co. has been projected it to be 281.3 million this year.
The increasing adoption of ADAS and AVs is attributable to a greater emphasis on both safety and green technology. Growing adoption of ADAS-enabled and autonomous cars may lead to more stable driving, resulting in less wear and tear.
An impact on collision repair
The potential effect AVs will have on the collision repair industry is recognized, but it’s also a trend that the industry says may be somewhat hard to predict. It’s a fact that the number of repairs will decrease. However, as cars are built with more and more sensors, the way vehicles are repaired will become more complex. The frequency of repairs may decline – particularly in AVs that are fully autonomous – because they will be “talking” to the infrastructure and will take immediate corrective action to avoid a collision. However, this is still in the distant future.
|A Cheat Sheet to the Six Levels of Driver Assistance Technology Advancements|
The road from the current vehicles with driver assistance functions – systems that support the driver with steering, acceleration and braking either separately or in combination but where the driver is ultimately in control and clearly responsible to fully autonomous vehicles – systems that can take full control of the driving task for parts of a journey under restricted conditions of in all conditions – is long and complex, with many technological and regulatory hurdles along the way. The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) has developed these levels to describe the various stages of vehicle automation.
With Level 5 vehicles, there won’t be a need for pedals or steering wheels because they will be fully autonomous. Although there are predictions that this level of automation could be possible further down the line – circa 2030-2035 – some experts and pundits say we will never truly reach a Level 5.Sources: National Highway and Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA), Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) and LORD Corporation
The goal of vehicle repair is obviously always proper repair, but it is more important than ever with AVs to have it done right because they will be driving themselves. Maintenance trends are anticipated to evolve as these vehicles will require less but more advanced maintenance such as Over-the-Air (OTA) updates. Repairs not only need to be done to original equipment manufacturer (OEM) specifications but by well-educated certified technicians using correct materials. This focus on OEM-approved materials is imperative.