In the early 1960s, the bigger-is-better era, Americans were driving huge cars. Volkswagen advertised the opposite, instead asking us to do the unthinkable – think small and get better gas mileage. With the Obama Administration's July announcement requiring a 54.5-mpg goal for the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standard, it may be time to think small again.
Still reeling from the administration's 2009 announcement that passenger cars must average 39 mpg and trucks like the Chevy Silverado, Ford F-Series and Dodge Ram, a seemingly impossible 30 mpg, many wonder how this, let alone the 54.5-mpg CAFE mandate, can be achieved.
The National Research Council (NRC) formed a committee to assess how automakers will be able to achieve this standard and at what cost to consumers and the auto repair industry. The NRC determined that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) will not achieve widespread success until cost and range challenges are addressed, not a real possibility for the next 15 years.
Traditional hybrids, which couple a gasoline engine with an electric motor, are poised for broader use. So is the micro hybrid, which improves the engine's start-stop fuel saving system by using a small battery or ultracapacitor to power a car's electrical systems while idle, allowing the gasoline engine to turn off and the air conditioning to still function. The battery also aids vehicle acceleration, saving fuel and allowing the system to recharge the battery when the car slows down.
The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) studied the impact of CAFE standards and predicted that start-stop technology will be in roughly 36 percent of vehicles by 2025 to meet the aggressive CAFE standard. The CAR study estimates that 35 percent of vehicles in 2025 will be hybrids. PHEVs would be due for a huge jump from just a few thousand vehicles to 19 percent in this scenario, with less than 1 percent being all-electric cars.
The CAR study mapped out a scenario to meet a 56 mpg standard (slightly higher than the Obama Administration standard) that includes a significant increase in the number of diesel power plants but includes a significant reduction in vehicle mass and weight. For every 220 pounds in vehicle weight savings, a 2 to 3 percent fuel economy improvement is seen. The study assumes a mid-size vehicle current weight of 3,625 pounds and projects that a compounded (taking into consideration weight reductions from smaller engines and other factors) reduction of 15 percent of vehicle mass is needed. This, they believe, will increase the average vehicle cost by $1,156. But, most importantly for the collision repair industry, a net weight reduction of 707 pounds is needed. For a mid-size platform, a dramatic shift in metallurgy and introduction of weight saving compounds such as the newly created forged carbon panel process will be necessary.
Forged carbon offers a much more economical alternative to today's carbon fiber. Taking random carbon chips and using massive hydraulic pressure to inject the chips into a mold, a uniformly strong, much sharper, more precise and cheaper molded product is created. Fenders, hoods, radiator supports, and potentially inner aprons are key targets for this technology.
What should repairers be prepared for in 2025?
Shops will need high-output MIG and TIG welders, separate vacuum systems to evacuate particle dust from metals that should not be mixed (mixing aluminum dust, certain steels and moisture in high heat can produce a thermite explosion). Advanced technical knowledge of the types of metals, electronics, hybrid technology, and the step-by-step OEM recommended repair procedures will be necessary common equipment. A tear down station will be critical to completely assess the full extent of damage to the various complex electrical and drive systems before a carrier can authorize repairs. Time is moving fast and the 54.5-mpg standard is less than 14 years away.
Contact info: [email protected]
