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Collision frequency predicted to drop, but repair costs to rise

So where do the market predictions from CCC leave you?
Thursday, April 12, 2018 - 07:00
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Safety distractions
As the need and demand for added safety features continues to grow, so does the negative impact — that even safety features can be distracting. The electronic content of vehicles has soared, but many of these systems work differently across the different models, and because of this, consumers are often unaware of how they work.

“As more warnings and icons and things that flash are added to the vehicle, it can actually increase distraction for the driver,” Gotsch said.

Frequency and the future
Going forward, autonomous vehicles will continue to dominate the headlines, and first-generation driver assistance features will continue to be embedded in many new vehicles today. OEs and technology companies are in a race to market. Leading players are forming consortiums to speed up developments and collaboration.

“Regardless of the timeframes, we are starting to see many more vehicles on the road that assist drivers to avoid crashes. That means the vehicles being repaired are more complex and offer more challenges,” Gotsch said.

The number of vehicles on the road continues to grow, while retirement/scrappage rates have remained relatively constant over a period of 30+ years. “We are going to see growth in the fleet, which means opportunity for accidents and accident frequency to stay at steady rates,” Gotsch said.

ADAS impact
By 2050, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) and the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) are predicting nearly 100 percent of vehicles will be equipped with ADAS technologies including rear parking sensors, adaptive headlights, front crash avoidance, lane departure warning, automatic emergency braking, blind spot monitoring and rear cameras.

“Many cars with this technology will be driving side by side with many others that aren’t,” said Gotsch.

“Crashes have gone down for vehicles with ADAS technologies. This technology is working and will reduce crashes. The question is how quickly will this impact overall market frequency,” Gotsch said. CCC is estimating that by 2050, there will be a 30 percent reduction in crash claims for vehicles equipped with ADAS technology.

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