Diesel worldwide use set to surpass gas-fueled vehicles by 2020

Jan. 1, 2020
Not only will diesel surpass gasoline as the No. 1 worldwide transportation fuel by 2020, diesel will also account for 70 percent of the growth in demand for all transportation fuels through 2040.

Diesel’s future as a global motor fuel is far from sputtering. Petroleum consumption forecasters are predicting that diesel-powered cars and trucks will be the dominant fuel system of choice for years to come.

Not only will diesel surpass gasoline as the No. 1 worldwide transportation fuel by 2020, diesel will also account for 70 percent of the growth in demand for all transportation fuels through 2040, according to a new study from ExxonMobil.

“The relative shift away from motor gasoline to diesel is driven by better light duty vehicle fuel economy and the growth in commercial transportation activity,” says the international energy provider’s 51-page analysis, entitled The Outlook For Energy: A View To 2040. “Economic growth and the resulting increased movement of goods and people drive demand for diesel fuel,” the report continues, citing heightened population levels and improving economies. “About 80 percent of the growth in commercial transport demand will come from developing nations.”

Currently diesel powers some 60 percent of the vehicles in Europe, where the fuel is less expensive than highly taxed gasoline. In the U.S. diesel typically costs between 25 cents and 40 cents per gallon more than gasoline, but the difference has been trending downward the past couple of years, according to Allen Schaeffer, executive director of the Diesel Technology Forum. When factoring in diesel’s relatively higher fuel efficiency, he says the cost differential is less significant.

“Even with high fuel prices, we’re seeing more consumers willing to invest in more advanced technology, fuel-efficient vehicles,” Schaeffer says.

And while North America’s thirst for gasoline is expected to decline by one-third through 2040, the ExxonMobil report anticipates that diesel’s domestic demand will rise by more than 65 percent.

“Fuel efficiency has always been a major attraction of clean diesel vehicles,” says Schaeffer. “Because diesels are 20 percent to 40 percent more fuel-efficient than gas cars, drivers save money with diesels even when diesel fuel prices are slightly higher than gas prices. The significant savings diesel owners experience compared to gas car owners highlights another major reason why clean diesel vehicles sales will increase significantly throughout the U.S. in the coming years,” he asserts.

About one out of every two U.S. service stations now offer diesel at the pump, up from one in three a few years ago, according to Schaeffer.

At the upcoming Automotive Aftermarket Products Expo (AAPEX) in Las Vegas, Bosch’s Bob Pattengale is conducting a seminar about the latest engine technologies, including diesel, on Wednesday, Nov. 6. On Thursday, Nov. 7, Gary Stamberger from MagnaFlow Exhaust Products is set to discuss clean diesel exhaust systems and how they impact the repair industry.

Bosch executives are predicting that by 2017 there will be more than 60 diesel vehicle models available in North America. The company’s diesel fuel injection system, ceramic glow plugs, engine control module, exhaust gas treatment technology and sensors are featured on a new release from General Motors now arriving in dealer showrooms. It’s being described as an engineering “game changer.”

“The launch of the 2014 Chevrolet Cruze Clean Turbo Diesel solidifies the growing perception and market demand for clean diesel technology here in the U.S.,” says Bernd Boisten, a Bosch regional president.

“With this compact sedan, Chevrolet is demonstrating its trust in the many benefits this technology provides, including increased fuel efficiency, superior driving range and maintaining its value longer,” Boisten reports. “We are thrilled to see Chevrolet bringing a clean diesel into the U.S. market now and thus further increasing choices for consumers.”

“We’re really excited about what the Chevy Cruze brings to this segment,” concurs Schaeffer. “It’s already a successful car in its fuel efficiency and market acceptance. With GM’s advanced clean-burning diesel technology under the hood, Cruze stands to be a game changer.”

Resolving drawbacks

Built in Lordstown, Ohio, testing by GM has the Cruze demonstrating a range of 717 highway miles on a single tank of diesel, achieving an estimated 46 mpg.

Over a one-year timeframe GM sold more than 500,000 diesel-powered cars across Europe, Asia, Africa and South America, including 33,000 Cruzes, which is GM’s best-selling model globally. The new offering in the U.S. “is expected to establish Chevrolet as the only domestic automaker offering an American-manufactured diesel-powered compact car with a European-American developed engine,” says Cruze marketing manager Mike Weidman.

“We recognize this technology’s considerable appeal, particularly with young male car buyers, and we are ready to win them over with quality, torque and fuel economy,” Weidman says, pointing out that the Cruze has resolved the drawbacks previously associated with older-generation diesel cars, such as excessive engine noise, exhaust soot and offending odors.

“Due to a higher compression ratio and greater energy density of the diesel fuel itself, diesel engines are able to produce more power than equivalent displacement gasoline-powered engines,” he notes.

“We leveraged engineering expertise from around the globe to develop a world-class, low-emissions engine to give U.S. and Canadian customers a car that’s both fun to drive and practical at the pump,” adds Chris Perry, the automaker’s vice president of marketing.

Cost of ownership

A recent study sponsored by Bosch and conducted by the University of Michigan’s Transportation Institute finds that diesel vehicles saved owners $2,000 to $6,000 in total ownership costs over a three-to-five-year period when compared to similar gasoline-powered models.

“Overall, the results of our analyses show that diesel vehicles provide owners with a TCO (total cost of ownership) that is less than that of the gas versions of the same vehicles,” according to the report, entitled Total Cost of Ownership: A Gas Versus Diesel Comparison. “The estimates of savings for three and five years of ownership vary from a low of $67 in three years to a high of $15,619 in five years, but most of the savings are in the $2,000 to $6,000 range, which also include the extra cost that is usually added to the diesel version of a vehicle.”

Schaeffer says “these new findings that clean diesel vehicles are a more cost-effective investment for car owners reinforces what auto analysts and other comparative studies have determined in recent years. In addition, as the U.S. moves to the increase fuel standards of 54.5 mpg by 2025, drivers will become more aware of the advantages diesels have over other vehicles in many important areas.”

In the three-year comparison, the study reports that a Volkswagen Jetta owner saved $3,128, the Jetta Sportwagen netted $3,389 in savings while a Golf buyer saved an estimated $5,013.

In the luxury segment, diesel versions of the Mercedes-Benz E Class ($4,175), GL Class ($13,514), M Class ($3,063), R Class ($5,951) and the VW Touareg ($7,819) all posted ownership savings during the three-year timeframe.

All of the diesel models had better mpg than the gasoline editions, with the diesels having between 8 percent to 44 percent higher mpg results, according to the study.

They also posted lower fuel costs than all the gas versions of comparable nameplates, with 11 of the 12 vehicles showing double digit reductions in fuel costs, ranging from 10 percent to 29 percent.

The study further reports that 11 of the 12 diesels held their value better than comparable gas models, with eight vehicles showing double digit percentage savings ranging from 17 percent up to 46 percent.

Nine of the 10 diesels held their value better than comparable gas vehicles over fives years, with five vehicles showing double digit percentage savings ranging from 10 percent up to 39 percent.

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